Groundhog Day Winter Scoreboard: Lapeer County

Groundhog Day always hits Lapeer County at the exact moment we’re all quietly asking the same question: “Okay… how much longer are we doing this?” The boots by the door are still crusted with salt. The shovel lives in the garage like it pays rent. And the sky has that familiar winter look that makes even a quick trip down M-24 feel like a tiny expedition.

And yesterday, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow. Which—according to tradition—means six more weeks of winter.

Now, whether you’re a Phil believer, a Phil skeptic, or someone who just likes any holiday that involves a small animal and a dramatic announcement… it’s a perfect excuse to check the real “winter scoreboard” for our area. What have we actually seen so far? What’s been above normal, what’s been below, and what’s the most realistic thing to expect between now and spring in Lapeer, Metamora, North Branch, Dryden, Columbiaville, Attica, Elba, Lum, Hadley, and everywhere in between?

First, a quick note on the numbers (so we’re not guessing)

Lapeer County doesn’t have a single “official” thermometer that speaks for every backyard and every township road. But nearby National Weather Service climate sites—like Flint and Detroit—give a solid, grounded snapshot of how this winter is stacking up across our slice of Southeast Michigan. Think of it as the closest official scorekeeping we’ve got, and a good way to put our own driveway experience into context.

The Winter Scoreboard (as of Groundhog Day)

1) Snowfall: We’ve been in the game—maybe a little more than usual.

If it feels like you’ve shoveled (or snowblown) a steady stream of “not huge, but constant” snowfalls, the season totals back that up. Since the start of meteorological winter (December 1), nearby official climate tracking shows around the upper-20s in inches of snowfall—running a bit above normal overall.

• Season-to-date snowfall since Dec. 1: roughly 29 inches in the Flint area and roughly 29 inches in the Detroit area.
• Compared to normal: Flint is slightly above normal; Detroit is more noticeably above normal for the same window.

That “slightly vs. noticeably” difference is something a lot of us recognize in real life: one storm tracks a little north, and Metamora gets a fresh coat while a few miles south gets a lighter dusting. Another storm cuts south, and it flips. Winter loves a map—and Lapeer County sits right where those little storm-track differences matter.

2) Snow depth: Enough to look like winter, not enough to relax.

Snow depth is the number that changes how winter feels. A couple inches can disappear fast. A persistent snowpack changes everything—temps, traction, and whether your dog looks personally offended when you open the door.

As of today, nearby reports show about 7 inches of snow on the ground at both Flint and Detroit’s climate sites. That’s the kind of depth that keeps the world looking like February… and keeps the end of your driveway rebuilding itself every time the plow goes by.

3) “Cold points” (Heating Degree Days): Winter’s been colder than normal overall.

One of the best ways to measure how cold a season truly is—without getting tricked by one random warm day—is a metric called heating degree days. In plain English: it’s a running tally of how much your furnace has been asked to do its job.

Since Dec. 1, heating degree days are running well above normal at both nearby climate sites. That lines up with what a lot of households have felt: the thermostat battles, the dry air, the “how is it already February?” utility bill energy.

4) Moisture: North and south haven’t matched.

Here’s a sneaky winter truth: “precipitation” (the melted-down total of rain/snow/ice) doesn’t always track perfectly with snowfall. You can have a snowy winter that’s made of lighter, fluffier systems—or a wetter winter that’s heavy, sloppy, and full of freeze-thaw mess.

So far, the official tracking shows Flint running wetter than normal since Dec. 1, while Detroit has been drier than normal in that same window. Translation for Lapeer County: it’s been a winter where storm placement matters, and your personal snow total might depend heavily on which side of town you live on and how each system decided to jog.

A quick dip into the record book (because February is dramatic)

Even when we’re not breaking records, it’s fun (and honestly helpful) to remember what’s possible here. The daily climate reports include record highs and lows for this date, and they’re a reminder that Michigan winters can swing hard.

• Feb. 2 record lows: well below zero (including a deep negative record at Flint) in past decades.
• Feb. 2 record highs: into the 50s in past years.

That spread—subzero on one end, sunny-and-50s on the other—is why February can feel like it’s arguing with itself. It also explains why we can be scraping a windshield one week and hearing dripping gutters the next.

So… what should we expect until spring?

Let’s blend Groundhog Day folklore with the boring-but-useful reality: long-range outlooks don’t promise exact snowstorms on exact dates, but they do show the pattern the atmosphere is leaning toward.

1) Don’t put the coat away yet: more serious cold is on the table in early-to-mid February.

A national forecast “key message” issued today highlights that another blast of Arctic air is anticipated during the second week of February. For us, that usually means at least a few things: sharper wind chills, higher demand on furnaces, and the kind of cold that turns “a little snow” into “this snow is not going anywhere.”

2) The broader late-winter outlook leans colder for the Great Lakes, with a wetter signal too.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlook discussion for the February–March–April stretch points to increased odds of below-normal temperatures in the northern tier—reaching into the Great Lakes—and above-normal precipitation favored for the Great Lakes region.

Important translation: “above-normal precipitation” doesn’t automatically mean “above-normal snow” for the entire period. As we slide toward March and April, more of that moisture can fall as rain or a wintry mix—especially during those classic Michigan days where the morning is icy and the afternoon is slushy.

What that could mean on the ground in Lapeer County

Here are the most realistic, share-worthy “between now and spring” expectations that match both the numbers we’ve seen and the pattern being suggested:

• More shovelable snow events: Not necessarily one historic blizzard—more likely the steady rhythm of systems that keep totals climbing little by little.
• At least one more true cold snap: The kind where you feel it instantly when you step outside, and wind chills do the heavy lifting.
• Freeze-thaw whiplash: A few mild stretches will melt daytime snow, then refreeze at night. That’s prime time for slick spots in parking lots, on side streets, and on those shaded stretches that never seem to see the sun.
• “Mud season” starting early (then pausing, then returning): If the wetter signal verifies, expect that messy in-between phase where it’s not quite winter, not quite spring—just wet, soft, and determined to ruin a clean car.

A few low-stress winter moves that actually help

This isn’t about panic-prepping. It’s about the small things that make the next six weeks easier—especially if we get another punch of deep cold.

• Keep an eye on exposed pipes and drafty corners: Deep cold is when little issues become big issues.
• Restock the boring stuff: Windshield washer fluid, sidewalk melt (if you use it), and a decent scraper brush. These are tiny purchases that save huge annoyance.
• Plan for quick-hit snow: Snow squalls and fast bursts can change roads fast, even if the “storm total” isn’t huge.
• Drive like it’s February (because it is): The most dangerous days aren’t always the biggest snow days—they’re the half-melt, overnight-refreeze days when everything looks fine until it isn’t.
• Check in on someone who hates winter: We all know one person who’s over it by December 10. A quick text goes a long way this time of year.

Okay, Phil says six more weeks. But here’s the good news.

Even if winter hangs on, we’re already on the back half of it. Daylight keeps stretching out. The sun climbs a little higher. And eventually—whether the groundhog approves or not—Lapeer County will hit that first real spring-feeling afternoon where you crack a car window on the way through town and suddenly remember what “warm” smells like.

Until then, consider this your Groundhog Day reality check: we’ve been a bit snowier than normal, colder than normal, and the pattern suggests winter still has a few pages left in the book. Not the whole book. Just a few more pages.

If you want to make this fun, share your own “winter scoreboard” in the comments—best snow total estimate, most dramatic driveway ridge, or the exact moment you decided you’re done shoveling for the season (even though winter didn’t agree).

Sources: Punxsutawney Groundhog Club; National Weather Service (Detroit/Pontiac) climate reports; NOAA Climate Prediction Center; NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center